Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Best stock market analyst

- Kuppusamy Chellamuthu

Posting some of the mail discussions from 'india_next' yahoo group.

First:
I have been trading in stocks for the last three years and losing money (yearly 2.5 lakhs on an average). I have tried everything from trading on my own intuition to getting tips from experts. There havent been a single three months streak where I have made money. Now what should I do? Do somebody have any idea who is the best analyst in India so that using his tips we can also make money? I dont care if he is a technical analyst or a fundamental analyst. I am ready to daytrade, invest or scalp. Who is the best out there? Please send me a mail if somebody has an opinion. Please do not mix business with this and do not send business advertisements.

Second:
I have a seasoned investor friend who often says, "Trading is one of the most sophisticated suicidal methods".

When you do day-trading your odds of gaining and losing are evenly poised, leaving apart the money you have to make up for brokerage and taxes. When a person comes with an intention of trading, his chance of winning is 0.50 (50%). He can either go broke or get the money enabling him to go ahead to the next day. His chance of gaining on the end of second day is 0.50 (for the previous day) X 0.50 (for second day) = 0.25. His chance of winning is reduced to 25% and to 12.5% on the third day. This has been proven by history. People who go great money in stocks were not addicted traders.

You did not need to beat the index by a substantial margin. But, had you stayed invested in sensex companies, your money would have grown decently during the past 3 years, which has been the best time for Indian stock market. Unless you are a broker, you don't need to advocate trading.

And...As our motive in operating stock market is to make money, seeking day-trading tips is nothing but a quick solution to the question 'how to make money in a day?' I am completely convinced that any person who has an answer for this question won't need to make money by selling his 'tips'.

Aa such, I don't detest trading. But, want to be sure on what I am trading. Otherwise better prefer flying to Los Vegas to try my luck.

Regret if your question did not get answer. I also believe that no other member of this group am not knows any such 'tipsters' who can facilitate us make money.

And finally, you are lucky enough to learn things at the expense of three years and 2.5 lakhs. There are people who paid much more for some trivial lessons.

3 comments:

தமிழ் விடு தூது said...

YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT SIR....I AGREE WITH U THAT DAY TRADING IS A " SOPHISTICATED SUICIDE " ( IN YOUR WORDS )..

youyes said...

If anybody knows the answer for your question, He is the only man in the forbes list and he never reveals his secret even if it may be you also.
Please try to understand the market, it is not a playground, it's only a business.

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